'Macro Commentary'February 2024

Financial Report Summary: U.S. Dollar Index Performance in February 2024

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed higher for the second consecutive month of the year as demand for the U.S. Dollar persisted. The USDX closed with a gain of 0.69% at 104.10.

Market Highlights:

U.S. Dollar Index Performance and Economic Indicators:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls surprised the markets after 353,000 new jobs were added in January, surpassing the expected 180,000 and the upwardly revised December figure of 333,000. Following this positive news the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed with a gain of 0.86% at 103.78.

  • Core Inflation, excluding food and energy, surprised the markets after it held steady at 3.9% for the period 12-month ending January. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a higher than expected 3.1% increase in January for the same period. The USDX closed the day with a gain of 0.80% at 104.85.

  • The FOMC Minutes released on February 21st reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%. The meeting highlighted the significance of observing the economic data in their decision-making process regarding future rate adjustments. They also shared their caution of lowering rates too quickly although expressed a sense of optimism. The USDX closed the day at 104.00 with a loss of 0.05%


Daily and Weekly U.S. Dollar Index Performance:

On the initial trading day of 2024, the U.S. Dollar Index ® surged, marking a 0.82% increase, fuelled by a resurgence of bullish sentiment. This upward trend persisted through Wednesday, propelled by increased demand for the U.S. Dollar following the release of unexpectedly positive ISM Manufacturing PMI figures and the disclosure of the FOMC Minutes. There was a slight setback following the ADP Employment Change report on 4th January, which initially indicated the addition of 164,000 new private sector jobs for December (later revised to 158,000), although the U.S. Dollar Index showed resilience. However, it rebounded on the final trading day of the week with a modest 0.02% gain.

In February, the U.S. Dollar Index exhibited dynamic movements influenced by economic indicators and Federal Reserve statements:

  • February 1st: The index closed lower at 103.78, despite positive ISM Manufacturing PMI data. However, a bullish recovery ensued after Nonfarm Payrolls data, closing at 103.78 with a gain of 0.86%.

  • February 5th: Continued bullish momentum was observed, with the index closing at 104.32, buoyed by strong ISM Services PMI and optimistic remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

  • February 6th-8th: Sideways trading characterized this period, following resistance encountered at 104.23 - 104.44.

  • February 13th: Strengthened demand for the U.S. Dollar occurred after the release of Core Inflation data. The index rallied, closing at 104.85, marking a gain of 0.80%.

  • February 16th: The index experienced three consecutive days of decline, closing the week at 104.18, with a modest gain of 0.20%.

  • February 21st: A slightly lower close was observed after the release of FOMC minutes, which emphasized the importance of data assessment before making rate decisions.

  • February 22nd: Despite an unexpected decline in S&P Global Services PMI, the index rebounded to 103.88, showing resilience in the face of adverse data.

  • February 28th: Closing the month, the index posted a gain despite a disappointing preliminary GDP report, ending at 104.10, with a cumulative gain of 0.69% for February.

Throughout the month, the U.S. Dollar Index's movements reflected a delicate balance between economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications, ultimately resulting in a modest overall gain.

March 2024 High Impact Events:

  • Future upcoming high-impact events include, ISM Manufacturing PMI (1st), ISM Services PMI (5th), Non-Farm Payroll (8th), Consumer Price Index (12th), Retail Sales (14th), Producer Price Index (14th), Fed Interest rate decision (20th) and GDP Q4 (28th), with potential to influence the U.S Dollar Index.

In summary, February witnessed an overall strong performance on the U.S. Dollar as demand increased, influenced by economic data, Fed decisions, and global events, resulting in a notable consecutive monthly increase for the U.S. Dollar Index.

S&P (ES) Futures:

  • Closed at 5103.75, experiencing a 4.70% gain in February 2024.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a 0.56% gain on the day.

  • Core Inflation eased, resulting in a 1.25% loss.

  • FOMC minutes confirmed January's decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% to 5.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting, leading to a gain of 0.13%.

CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures (BMC):

  • Bitcoin rose to new highs to $61,555, up 45.4% from the previous month.

  • The US House Financial Services Committee is advocating for regulated financial institutions to become custodians for digital assets, challenging the SEC's demand for disclosing liabilities and assets related to cryptocurrencies held for clients. This puts significant financial burden on these institutions, requiring them to maintain substantial capital to manage associated risks.

Mini Crude Futures (QM):

  • Mini-Crude closed the month at $78.250 with a 3.06% gain.

  • The market opened at $75.925 and reached a low of $71.40 before reversing to close out the month with a positive gain.

  • The focus is on whether OPEC+ will continue their voluntary production cuts into the second quarter,

which could uphold a favorable impact on crude prices. At first, OPEC decided to reduce total supply by 2.2 million barrels per day for the entirety of the first quarter. Meanwhile, there are ongoing worries about China's slow economic expansion affecting demand, while forecasts indicate the United States Federal Reserve will maintain rates at their current level for the foreseeable future.

Risk Considerations and Restrictions:

  • Caution for retail investors regarding risks associated with bitcoin futures.

  • Warning about potential legal restrictions on distribution in certain jurisdictions.


  • General information provided "as is" and "as available."

  • CLiK Trading Education excludes liability, and the document's content is proprietary and protected by copyright.

The report covers various futures indices, providing an overview of their performance, market conditions, and upcoming events. Investors are advised to consider the associated risks and legal restrictions.