'Macro Commentary'April 2024

Financial Report Summary: U.S. Dollar Index® Performance in April 2024

The U.S. Dollar Index® rallied strongly in April after the demand for the U.S. Dollar persisted. The USDX closed the month with a gain of 1.77% at 106.10 to mark the fourth consecutive bullish month.

Market Highlights:

U.S. Dollar Index ® Performance and Economic Indicators:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls recorded an unexpected rise after 303,000 new jobs were added in March, later revised to 315,000, surpassing the expected 200,000 and above the downwardly revised February numbers of 270,000. Following this news the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day with a modest gain of 0.06% at 104.07.

  • Core Inflation, excluding food and energy, steadied at the near three-year low at 3.8% for the period 12-month ending March, slightly above the market expectations of 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released surprised the markets after it ticked higher than expected to 3.5% for the period 12-month ending March from 3.2% the prior month. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day with a gain of 1.10% at 105.03.

  • On the same day as inflation data was released the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes

from the meeting held on March 20th. The minutes confirmed that all participants agreed to maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%, seeing it as supportive in returning inflation to 2%.


Daily and Weekly U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures Performance:

April Performance of the U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX)

In April, the U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX) exhibited significant volatility, influenced by a mix of economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and shifting market sentiments. The month began on a bullish note, bolstered by strong manufacturing data, but faced intermittent bearish pressures due to varying economic indicators and Fed Chair Powell's cautious stance on interest rates. Throughout April, the U.S. Dollar Index ® experienced notable fluctuations driven by employment data, inflation reports, and PMI releases, ultimately closing the month with a solid gain, marking its fourth consecutive bullish monthly close of 2024.

Detailed Summary:

  • Early April: The U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX) started bullishly after strong ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March, closing at 104.76 with a 0.49% gain. However, bearish sentiment soon took over as

  • demand for the U.S. Dollar weakened, causing the index to drop to 104.56 (-0.17%).

  • April 3rd: Despite positive ADP Employment Change data (184,000 jobs, later revised to 208,000), the USDX fell due to worse-than-expected ISM Services PMI data (51.40, down 2.28%). Fed Chair Powell's speech on the same day reiterated a cautious approach to reducing interest rates, emphasizing that rates would remain high due to inflation still exceeding the 2% target. This contributed to a further drop in U.S. Dollar Index ® to close at 104.00 (-0.51%).

  • April 5th: The Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed an unexpected surge in job creation (303,000 new jobs), leading to a brief rally in the U.S. Dollar Index ®, which reached a high of 104.46 during the trading session. However, the index closed the day at 104.07 (+0.06%) and ended the week down 0.17%.

  • April 8-10: The U.S. Dollar Index ® saw fluctuations; it initially fell on April 8th but gained slightly on April 9th. On April 10th, the index rallied due to steady Core Inflation data (3.8%) and an uptick in CPI (3.5%). The FOMC minutes, indicating no change in interest rates and a strong labour market, supported the rally, leading the

index to close at 105.03 (+1.10%), the highest daily gain of the month.

  • April 11-12: Mixed economic data emerged: the Core Producer Price Index rose to 2.4%, slightly above expectations, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell short of expectations. Despite this, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed up 0.73% at 105.83 on April 12th, ending the week with a 1.70% gain.

  • Mid-April: Positive Retail Sales data for March (0.7% increase) boosted the USDX to 106.00 (+0.16%) on April 15th. However, the index faced resistance and pulled back on April 17th (-0.37%). It gained again on April 18th as the U.S. Dollar attracted safe-haven inflows, but ended the week with a modest 0.15% gain.

  • Late April: Weak S&P Preliminary PMI data for services and manufacturing on April 23rd caused the USDX to drop 0.43%. The bearish trend continued on April 25th after Q1 GDP growth data showed a significant slowdown (1.6% vs. 2.5% forecast). However, the index recovered slightly by the week's end, closing with a modest 0.08% loss.

  • End of April: The USDX dropped 0.41% on April 29th but rebounded on the last trading day of the month, closing at 106.10 (+1.77%). This marked the fourth

consecutive bullish monthly close for the U.S. Dollar Index ® in 2024, highlighting the sustained strength of the U.S. Dollar throughout the year's first four months.

These movements in the U.S. Dollar Index ® were influenced by a mix of economic data releases, market sentiment towards inflation and interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which together shaped the market's perception and demand for the U.S. Dollar.

May 2024 High Impact Events:

  • Future upcoming high-impact events include, ADP Employment Change (1st), ISM Manufacturing PMI (1st), Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (1st), Non-Farm Payroll (3rd), ISM Services PMI (3rd), Producer Price Index (14th), Fed Chair Powells Speech (14th), Consumer Price Index (15th), Retail Sales (15th), FOMC Minutes (22nd), and GDP Q1 PREL (30th), with potential to influence the U.S Dollar Index.

In summary, April witnessed an overall strong performance on the U.S. Dollar as demand increased, influenced by economic data, Fed decisions, and global events, resulting in a notable consecutive monthly increase for the U.S. Dollar Index ® .

S&P (ES) Futures:

  • Closed at 5067.00, experiencing a loss of 4.65%

in April 2024.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls surpassed expectations, leading to a gain on the day of 1.01%.

  • Core Inflation steadied, resulting in a loss of 1.07% in the ES on the day.

  • The Fed released the minutes of the March meeting sharing the unanimous decision taken by policymakers to hold the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%. The minutes were released on the same day as inflation data was announced.

CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures (BMC):

  • Bitcoin retraced towards the $60,000 level and closed at $62,262 down 12.9% for the month.

·         The Bitcoin blockchain network completed its fourth “halving” event on Friday April 19th reducing the bitcoin miner reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. Certain market participants are expecting digital asset prices to remain high, encouraged by recent funding flows into the still nascent asset class, and growing interest in diversification into approved digital asset-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Mini Crude Futures (QM):

  • Mini-Crude closed the month at $81.925 with a loss of 1.51%.

  • The market opened at $83.175 and after reaching a high of $87.65 it reversed to close out the month with a loss.

  • Despite the urging of the United States to halt strikes against Russian oil infrastructure, Ukraine had continued to send drones to disable and disrupt oil refineries located in places such as Slavyansk-on-Kuban owned by Slavyansk ECO with a capacity for processing 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, south of Ukraine; and the Rosfnet-owned Ryazan refinery with a 342,000 bpd capacity, north-east of Ukraine. Frequent attacks are intended to cause economic damage through costly repairs and expenditure on air defence systems.


Risk Considerations and Restrictions:

  • Caution for retail investors regarding risks associated with Bitcoin Futures.

  • Warning about potential legal restrictions on distribution in certain jurisdictions.


  • General information provided "as is" and "as available."

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The report covers various futures indices, providing an overview of their performance, market conditions, and upcoming events. Investors are advised to consider the associated risks and legal restrictions.