'Macro Commentary'December 2023

Financial Report Summary: U.S. Dollar Index Performance in December 2023

In a challenging month for the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) experienced a second consecutive monthly decline, closing at 101.03, marking a 2.19% loss for December and a 2.34% loss for the entire year – the first annual decline since 2020.

Market Highlights:

USDX Performance and Economic Indicators:

  • The USDX closed December with a 2.19% loss, closing at 101.03, amid waning demand for the U.S. Dollar.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations with the addition of 199,000 new jobs in November, contributing to a USDX gain of 0.47%.

  • Core Inflation remained steady at 4.0% for the 12-month period ending November, resulting in a USDX loss of 0.16%.

  • The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, keeping the benchmark Federal Funds rate in the range of 5.25% - 5.50%, leading to a USDX loss of 0.91%.

Daily and Weekly USDX Performance:

  • Early December saw a reversal in USDX momentum following ISM Manufacturing PMI data and cautious comments from Fed Chair Powell, closing the week with a 0.11% loss.

  • The USDX experienced fluctuations in December, driven by economic data releases and Fed announcements, culminating in a 1.71% weekly loss on December 14th – the worst weekly performance for the month.

  • Sideways trading dominated the week commencing December 18th with the most significant move occurring after the release of Q3 GDP figures.

  • Late December recovery the USDX rebounded on December 28th, marking two days of gains but ultimately closing the week with a 0.28% loss.

  • The USDX closed the month with a 2.19% loss and the downtrend continued on both daily and weekly timeframes.

January 2024 High Impact Events:

  • Future upcoming high-impact events include Non Farm Payroll (5th), Consumer Price Index (11th), Producer Price Index (12th), Retail Sales (17th), GDP Q4 (25th) and the Fed Interest Rate Decision (31st), with potential to influence the USDX.

In summary, December witnessed persistent downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar, influenced by economic data, Fed decisions, and global events, resulting in a notable monthly and yearly decline for the U.S. Dollar Index.


S&P (ES) Futures:

  • Closed at 4820.00, experiencing a 5.43% gain in December.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, causing a 0.49% gain.

  • Core Inflation remained steady, resulting in a 0.42% gain.

  • The Fed maintained rates, leading to the largest daily gain in the month at 1.28%.

CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures (BMC):

  • Closed at $43,087, up 11.7% from the previous month.

  • Bitcoin surged due to potential ETF approval and the upcoming halving event in April 2024.

  • Resurgence linked to U.S. elections, regulatory changes, and increased interest in digital assets.

Mini Crude Futures (QM):

  • Started on a downward trend, hitting a monthly low of $67.70.

  • Rebounded from the low to close at $71.65, marking a 5.56% monthly decline.

  • Crude close the year with a 11.02% loss

  • Angola's withdrawal from OPEC contributed to diminished market share.

Market Commentary (ES, BMC, QM):

  • Detailed market commentary provided for each futures index.

  • Technical indicators, historical volatility, and support/resistance levels discussed.

  • Upcoming high-impact events highlighted for each futures index.

Risk Considerations and Restrictions:

  • Caution for retail investors regarding risks associated with bitcoin futures.

  • Warning about potential legal restrictions on distribution in certain jurisdictions.


  • General information provided "as is" and "as available."

  • CLiK Trading Education excludes liability, and the document's content is proprietary and protected by copyright.

The report covers various futures indices, providing an overview of their performance, market conditions, and upcoming events. Investors are advised to consider the associated risks and legal restrictions.