'Macro Commentary'June 2024

Financial Report Summary: U.S. Dollar Index ® Performance in June 2024

The U.S. Dollar Index ® demonstrated renewed strength in June when it closed at 105.55, with a significant gain of 0.94%. This uptick reflected a resurgence in demand for the U.S. Dollar after a disappointing May.

Market Highlights:

U.S. Dollar Index ® Performance and Economic Indicators:

  • On June 7th Nonfarm Payrolls recorded an unexpected rise in May after 272,000 new jobs were added, surpassing market expectations of 185,000. This robust increase also outshone the downwardly revised April numbers of 165,000. The labour market's surprised strength helped propel the U.S. Dollar Index ® to close at 104.86, with a 0.74% gain, the strongest daily performance of the month.

  • On June 12th Annual Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, unexpectedly fell to a rate of 3.4% for the 12-month period ending May, below market expectations of 3.5% and dropping from April’s rate of 3.6%. The CPI data released also surprised the markets after it ticked lower than expected to 3.3% from 3.4% the prior month. This lower-than-anticipated inflation reading contributed towards the U.S. Dollar Index ® closing the

day down 0.61% at 104.62, reflecting investors' reassessment of potential Federal Reserve policy moves which also came later the same day.

  • Also on June 12th The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, despite recent progress with inflation falling. The FOMC signalled a more cautious approach to rate cuts, projecting only one potential cut in 2024, down from the three cuts initially anticipated in March. The committee now foresees four rate cuts in 2025. This decision was announced on the same day as softer inflation data was released, which contributed towards the decline in the U.S. Dollar Index ® on the day.


Daily and Weekly U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures Performance:

June Performance of the U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX)

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) experienced fluctuations throughout June 2024, driven by a combination of economic indicators and market events. Key factors influencing the index included ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data, employment reports (particularly the strong Nonfarm Payrolls data on June 7th), inflation figures, and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates.

These economic releases caused the USDX to oscillate between bearish and bullish sentiments throughout the month.

Despite the volatility, the USDX demonstrated overall strength in June, closing the month with a gain of 0.94% at 105.55.

Early June:

  • The month began with bearish sentiment, as the USDX dropped to 104.08 on June 3rd due to weak ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

  • However, positive ISM Services PMI data on June 5th helped boost the dollar, with the index closing at 104.22

  • Mid-June: June 7th marked the strongest daily performance, with the USDX closing at 104.86, a 0.74% gain, driven by strong Nonfarm Payrolls data.

  • The bullish momentum continued into the following week, with the index testing the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands.

  • On June 12th, the USDX experienced its largest down day, closing at 104.62 with a 0.61% loss, following the release of softer Core Inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates.

  • Late June: The index found support at the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands around June 18th.

  • Strong economic indicators, including positive S&P Preliminary Global Services and

Manufacturing PMI data, supported the dollar's strength towards the end of the month.

The USDX reached its highest point on June 26th, closing at 105.71.

  • Overall trend: The U.S. Dollar Index reverted to an uptrend on the daily timeframe, using the daily SMA & EMA 20 and 30.

  • It maintained an uptrend on the weekly timeframe, based on the weekly SMA & EMA 20 and 30.

In conclusion, despite some fluctuations, the USDX demonstrated resilience and overall strength throughout June 2024, reflecting the complex interplay of economic data and market sentiment affecting the U.S. dollar's value against a basket of major currencies.

July 2024 High Impact

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (1st), ADP Employment Change (3rd), ISM Services PMI (3rd), FOMC Minutes (3rd) Non-Farm Payroll (5th), CPI (11th), PPI (12th), Retail Sales (16th), GDP Q2 (25th) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (31st)

In summary, June witnessed a strong performance on the U.S. Dollar as demand returned throughout the month influenced by economic data, Fed decisions, and global events, resulting in a rebound for the U.S. Dollar Index ®.

S&P (ES) Futures:

  • Closed at 5525.50, experiencing a gain of 4.19% in June 2024.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls had an unexpected rise after 272,000 new jobs added, this led to the ES losing 0.12% on the day, closing at 5355.75.

  • Core Inflation eased, resulting in a gain of 0.8% on the day.

  • On June 12th, the Fed maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50% this contributed to the ES closing higher on the day.

CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures (BMC):

  • Bitcoin dropped towards the low set in early May at $57,297, to record a monthly low for June at $60,795. Bitcoin closed the month at $61,707, down 10.3%.

  • Since their January launch, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have amassed about $55 billion in total net assets by June. The top five ETFs are led by BlackRock's IBIT with $19.4 billion, followed by Grayscale's GBTC at $17.4 billion, Fidelity's FBTC with $10.7 billion, ARK Invest's ARKB at $2.9 billion, and Bitwise's BITB with $2.4 billion. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has shown the fastest growth, surpassing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to become the largest in the market.

Mini Crude Futures (QM):

  • Mini-Crude rebounded in June from a low of $72.475 to close at $81.55 with a 5.52% gain.

  • The market opened at $77.05 and reached a high of $82.70.

  • Seasonal influences may contribute to rising crude oil prices in the coming months, particularly with the onset of the summer driving season in the United States.

  • The EIA report mentions that U.S. crude oil production is expected to grow by 2% from 2023 to an annual average of 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, and by another 4% in 2025 to 13.7 million b/d. This increase in production could affect inventory levels and prices.

  • OPEC+ is planning to gradually unwind last year's extra voluntary output cuts starting in 4Q24, which could affect supply and prices.

  • Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Lebanon, are cited as a factor that could potentially boost oil prices

Risk Considerations and Restrictions:

  • Caution for retail investors regarding risks associated with Bitcoin Futures.

  • Warning about potential legal restrictions on distribution in certain jurisdictions.


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The report covers various futures indices, providing an overview of their performance, market conditions, and upcoming events. Investors are advised to consider the associated risks and legal restrictions.