'Macro Commentary'March 2024

Financial Report Summary: U.S. Dollar Index Performance in March 2024

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed higher for the third consecutive month of the year as demand for the U.S. Dollar continued. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month of March with a gain of 0.20% at 104.27.

Market Highlights:

U.S. Dollar Index Performance and Economic Indicators:

• An unexpected rise in Nonfarm Payrolls after 275,000 new jobs were added in February, surpassing the expected 200,000 and exceeding the significantly downwardly revised January figure of 256,000. Following this news the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day with a loss of 0.05% at 102.69.

• Core Inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to a near three-year low of 3.8% for the period 12-month ending February, although slightly above the market expectations of 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released showed a higher than expected 3.2% increase in February for the 12-month period compared with 3.1% the prior month. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day with a gain of 0.16% at 102.93.

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on March 20th its decision to hold the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%, held since July 2023. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 103.05 with a loss of 0.47%.

Daily and Weekly U.S. Dollar Index Futures Performance:

March Performance of the U.S. Dollar Index® (USDX)

March was a volatile month for the U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX), characterised by a series of economic data releases and central bank actions that drove fluctuations in the currency's value. Despite the early setbacks, the U.S. Dollar Index ® managed to close the month with a modest gain, marking its third consecutive positive monthly close for the year. The following is a summary of the key events and their impacts on the U.S. Dollar Index® throughout March.

Key Points:

• March 1: The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 103.80, down 0.09% for the week, following disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

• Week of March 4-8:

  • March 5: ISM Services PMI data missed expectations, weakening the USD.

  • March 6: ADP Employment Change fell short, leading to a 0.45% drop (103.32).

  • March 7: Fed Chair Powell's speech caused a 0.47% loss, with the Index breaking through the lower Bollinger Bands (102.77).

  • March 8: Despite some recovery post-Nonfarm Payrolls, the week ended with a 1.07% loss.

• Week of March 11-15:

  • March 12: Early trading strength was offset by Core Inflation data, with a close at 102.93 (+0.16%).

  • March 13: A loss of 0.15% due to reduced USD demand.

  • March 14: Retail Sales and Core PPI data drove a 0.58% gain (103.34).

  • March 15: Continued gains led to a weekly close at 103.06 (+0.34%).

• Week of March 18-22:

  • March 18-19: The Index closed higher for two consecutive days, surpassing the mid-Bollinger Bands.

  • March 20: Fed’s policy meeting announced the decision to hold the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50% which resulted in a 0.47% decline the index closed at 103.05.

  • March 21: USD strengthened due to external central bank actions and mixed PMI data, resulting in a 0.72% gain.

  • March 22: The week concluded positively with a close at 104.18 (+1.08%).

• Week of March 25-29:

  • March 25: The Index closed lower at 103.93 (-0.22%).

  • March 26-27: Support levels prompted a recovery with positive trading.

  • March 28: GDP Annualized Q4 data led to a 0.13% gain.

  • March 29: No trading occurred due to the Good Friday holiday.

Overall, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed March at 104.27, achieving a 0.20% gain for the month. Despite the mid-month volatility and mixed economic signals, the index demonstrated resilience and continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month.